Majority of property consultants polled by the media expect the government to further reduce land supply for private housing development in the confirmed list in the upcoming H2 2014 Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme, given the sharp decline in home sales as well as the substantial supply pipeline.
Most of them believe that the reserve list will continue to account for the bulk of private housing land supply in H2 2014.
In the first half of the year, the Ministry of National Development (MND) is releasing land for almost 7,000 homes, including 605 executive condominium (EC) units, via the reserve list.
With this, property consultants expect the same level of overall supply for the reserve list in the second half, although most expect the supply of ECs to be higher, at about 1,000 units.
In the confirmed list, the MND is releasing for 4,630 homes, including 2,165 ECs, in the first half. The quantum forecast is lower for H2 at around 2,000 to 4,400 (including ECs).
DTZ’s Research Head Lee Lay Keng expects the number to range from 3,500 to 4,000 units, including 1,900 to 2,200 EC units.
Desmond Sim, CBRE Research Singapore Head predicts that the authorities would not offer any ECs on the confirmed list and around 1,000 on the reserve list, while JLL National Director Ong Teck Hui expect the supply to decline by 10 percent from H1 to around 8,000 private homes, 6,000 on the reserve list and 2,000 on the confirmed list.
On the contrary, Tan Tiong Cheng, Executive Chairman at Knight Frank, said the government may opt not to change the current supply numbers in both the confirmed and reserve list.
“If the authorities are looking to begin rolling back some of the property cooling measures at some point in the second half of this year, they don’t need to be over-generous by scaling back the GLS Programme as well,” he said.
“Otherwise, if there is a sudden surge in demand from fence-sitters if, say, the ABSD (additional buyer’s stamp duty) is reduced or removed, developers and agents may tell potential buyers: There’s no new supply coming, so you’d better buy from me.”