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Govt won’t let property market crash: Shanmugam

Posted on 7 Feb 2016 | Comments Off

Home Affairs and Law Minister K. Shanmugam during his dialogue session with ERA agents

The government has a “rough idea” on when to revise the property cooling measures, “but that doesn’t mean that we announce it”, said Home Affairs and Law Minister K. Shanmugam.

Speaking to over 2,000 property agents at an ERA Realty conference on Wednesday (3 Feb), the minister said such a decision would be made by the National Development and Finance ministers when they assess the risks to be “less or manageable”.

He was responding to questions on when the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) would be removed.

He explained that the measures were put in place by the government to protect Singaporeans, and they have managed to avert the disaster of an overheated property market.

He noted that while some people are worried that the property market could go the other way, the government will ensure this doesn’t happen.

“We cannot have a healthy economy if the property market has crashed. So it’s not in anybody’s interest to see it crash.”

First introduced in December 2011, the ABSD was revised upwards in January 2013 to rein in Singapore’s escalating residential property prices.

Singaporeans are required to pay an ABSD of seven percent for a second property, and 10 percent for a third and subsequent property. However, foreigners are required to pay an ABSD of 15 percent for their first and subsequent property purchases.

Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer at ERA Realty, believes that the government is watching the market closely and will tweak the property measures in due time.

“The question is when, and many analysts have tried to set a target of how much prices will come down before the government removes the measures, but I do not think that is the case. The government is concerned about Singaporeans over-leveraging themselves as there are many potential buyers waiting on the sidelines.

“Right now, we’re not sure how quickly prices will rebound if one of the measures is removed, and I think that is the litmus test for the government. They don’t want to remove something and cause prices to rebound, derailing the measures.

“They are looking at market stability rather than a target price. When the time comes, they will make the decision to reverse the measures, which will be a quick and easy process.”

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Tagged ABSD, additional buyer’s stamp duty, property-cooling measures, Shanmugam

S’pore may ease cooling measures in second half of 2016

Posted on 17 Dec 2015 | Comments Off

Property cooling measures in Singapore could be eased as early as the second half of 2016 if private home prices continue falling, revealed Donald Han, Managing Director of Chesterton Singapore, at a luncheon hosted by Credit Suisse for its Singapore investors.

He believes a price drop of around 15 percent is likely to prompt an adjustment of current housing policies, given the small buffer before property owners slip into negative equity.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) residential price index has recorded an eight percent slide from the peak in Q3 2013.

As a result, property measures could be relaxed in 2H 2016, with rising interest rates acting as the “9th cooling measure”, shared Han.

“A reduction in the ABSD (Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty) is most likely, but a reduction in the SSD (Seller’s Stamp Duty) could also materialise, should there be higher instances of mortgagee sales. The TDSR (Total Debt Servicing Ratio) is unlikely to be removed, however.

“Despite the easing of cooling measures and demand from PRs waiting to purchase, prices are only expected to bottom in 2018. New sales of 7,000 to 8,000 units are likely to be the new norm, with current unsold stock of around 24,000 units requiring three years to clear.”

Meanwhile, mass market homes are expected to see the fastest erosion in prices as the bulk of private supply is within the Outside Central Region (OCR), said Han. In addition, he predicts the large supply of up to 20,000 HDB flats in 2016 will put further pressure on suburban home prices.

This comes on the back of the “Bidadari” effect, where strong demand was seen in the November Build-To-Order (BTO) launch, which saw 5-room flats oversubscribed by 23 times.

In a report, Credit Suisse added: “We believe the stage is set for a pre-emptive re-calibration of cooling measures in 2H 2016, given persistent oversupply, speculative activity and foreign demand that have been curbed, while income growth has outpaced home prices. This would be a key re-rating catalyst for the sector.”

The Zurich-based firm has rated City Developments Limited (CDL) as its top pick among property developers, as “CDL is also best positioned for a turnaround in the Singapore residential market sentiment in 2016″.