Tag Archives: Singapore Property Market

Appealing to the mass market

Developers shift focus to affordability, say NG WEI EN and CHUA CHOR HOON

LAST year saw the second highest volume of private residential transactions in history, with the 30,830 caveats lodged falling short only of the 37,304 recorded in the 2007 boom.

A combination of factors helped to boost demand for residential property. These were pent-up demand from those who had missed out on the previous boom, low interest rates and a lack of alternative investment options, after the debacle with financial products. These, coupled with the appearance of ‘green shoots’ in the economy and a rally in the stock market, helped the residential market stir to life in late Q1 2009.

The mass market was the star performer of the residential market. Of the 30,830 caveats lodged in 2009, 23,240 – or 75 per cent – were for transactions outside the prime districts of 9,10,11, the Central Business District and Sentosa/Harbourfront areas.

Quick-thinking developers rode the popular wave of affordable homes by altering their plans – downsizing units and releasing mass market projects to appeal to the buyers who were then dominating the market.

Buyers with HDB addresses accounted for 41 per cent of total buyers in 2009, almost double the 22 per cent in 2007 when higher-end projects were leading the rise in the market. Many in 2009 saw the opportunity to upgrade to private housing, which was also supported by rising HDB resale prices.

Affordability

Over the past year, we have seen a 13 per cent rebound in the average price of secondary mass market units recovering back to the peak level in Q4 2007.

Through this period, the affordability index has also moved up 13 per cent to 136. The affordability index tracks the minimum gross household income required to qualify for an 80 per cent loan-to-value mortgage for the purchase of a private home. It takes into account property prices, CPF contribution rates, as well as interest rates. The lower the index, the more affordable it is as a lower income is required to qualify for a mortgage from the bank.

In other words, a higher income is now required to purchase a mass market unit compared to a similar one in Q1 2009.

Nevertheless, mass market units are more affordable now than they were in 2007. This is largely due to the difference in the mortgage rates as the three-month Sibor rate has fallen close to two percentage points during the period (Figure 1).

Furthermore, according to the Key Household Trends 2009 survey, the average monthly household income from work for 2009 in the 81st to 90th decile is $12,290, which is higher than the $11,330 in 2007.

Based on the affordability index, mass market units at end-2009 were more affordable compared to the period between Q1 2006 and Q3 2008. However, as interest rates are at an all-time low, it is a matter of time before they head north. A one-percentage-point increase in interest rates will result in a 14 per cent rise in the affordability index with no change in price. If prices were to increase by five percentage points at the same time, the index would rise by 19 per cent to 162 (Table 1).

There is no hard and fast rule as to the threshold index level at which buyers would find mass market purchases affordable as this also depends on income level.

However, there exists an inverse relationship between the affordability index and the number of home buyers with HDB addresses. During periods when the index declines, the proportion of buyers of HDB addresses increases.

Looking at the more recent period from 2006 to the present, the proportion of buyers with HDB addresses fell to below 30 per cent when the affordability index was above 150, indicating that this could be the threshold level. In most quarters, the proportion of buyers with HDB addresses was above 40 per cent.

Hence, mass market housing could become generally less affordable if: (i) prices were to increase by more than 10 per cent; (ii) prices rise by 5 per cent with a 0.5-percentage-point increase in interest rates, or (iii) interest rate rises by one percentage point with no change in prices.

Besides affordability, recent government measures affecting both the public and private segments would have some impact on the volume of transactions and are likely to check the increase in prices to less than 10 per cent this year.

At the moment, despite more new projects being launched at prices above $800 per sq ft, there are still a number of projects in the resale market available for less than $700,000 for unit sizes of above 1,000 sq ft. This shows that affordable units still exist and that purchasers are not restricted to micro-sized and high-priced residential units (Table 2).

Greek historian Thucydides once said: ‘Few things are brought to a successful issue by impetuous desire, but most by calm and prudent forethought.’

For potential buyers, it would be prudent to look beyond the current interest rates to assess the ability to repay the monthly mortgage payments over the next 20-30 years when interest rates move up eventually.

Ng Wei En is research analyst and Chua Chor Hoon is head of research, South-east Asia, DTZ

Source : Business Times – 25 Mar 2010

Landed homes: Lure of scarcity

With relatively few landed home launches, buyers are always keen on older houses in the resale market, writes HAN HUAN MEI

WHEN private home prices made their sterling recovery in the second half of 2009, landed homes didn’t miss out on the action. The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) price indices for detached, semi-detached and terrace houses recovered by 22-26 per cent in 2H 2009, after falling some 18-21 per cent from the market peak in the second quarter of 2008 to Q2 2009.

This upward trend is likely to continue because of the scarcity of landed homes in Singapore. Out of a total housing stock of 1.14 million units, only 69,500 or 6.1 per cent are landed homes.

While new landed projects are limited, home buyers are always willing to buy older properties in the resale market. On average, 380 new landed homes and 2,800 resale landed homes changed hands annually between 2004 and 2009.

Moreover, there is also a certain degree of speculative activity in the landed market. An analysis of the caveats lodged for subsales of new landed properties in the past year shows a gain of 5.5 to 34 per cent from their original prices two to three years ago.

Landed properties offer a certain prestige to homeowners in the middle to high-income groups. Nowadays, well-heeled homebuyers in their mid-30s are especially attracted to entry level bungalows with a land area of 4,000-5,000 sq ft and costing $4-$5 million. Some of these can be found in Lynwood Grove and Cotswold Close.

Equally popular are strata bungalows like Goodman Crest and Bellaville which have the same built-up area as the average bungalow but cost less – around $2.5-$3.5 million – because of the shared ownership of land and communal facilities like swimming pool and landscaped garden.

Similarly, cluster terrace houses are seen as value for money as opposed to condominiums because of their generous built-up areas of over 3,000 sq ft. These also come with communal facilities which appeal to families with young children.

However, the downside of cluster terrace developments is the rather crowded conditions within the compound and the higher volume of vehicular traffic they generate in the neighbourhood.

At the top of the Singapore housing pyramid are the good class bungalows (GCBs) which are the most prestigious and expensive type of housing. In just the first two months of 2010, some 14 GCBs were transacted, compared with just three in the first quarter of 2009.

Among the 14, the most expensive GCB was a Swettenham Road house, which sold for $31.5 million in January. It has a land area of 29,569 sq ft.

In 2009, the highest priced GCB was sold in October at $38.67 million. It is located in Victoria Park Road and has a land area of 32,077 sq ft.

Over at Sentosa Cove, Kasara villas, which range from 9,000 sq ft to over 14,000 sq ft, were sold at $14-$22 million in November 2009. These villas come with designer finishes and top quality fittings.

The reason why leasehold landed homes in Sentosa Cove can fetch prices equivalent to, if not higher than, their freehold counterparts on the mainland is because of the resort island status, foreigners’ eligibility to buy and above all, limited supply of around 400 units. Foreigners are not allowed to buy landed properties on the mainland and even permanent residents need special approval from the authorities to buy one.

In 2009, a landed project in Seletar Hills estate called Luxus Hills was launched. The first phase of 78 terrace houses was sold within a few weeks. In the second phase, another 30 units sold quickly at a similar price range. The terrace houses fetched $1.7-$2 million while the semi-detached houses fetched $2-$2.2 million.

Estrivillas, a cluster housing project in Jalan Lim Tai See comprising 38 semi-detached and one detached house, was launched in November 2009. By January this year, 24 of the 39 units had been sold at $3.5-$3.8 million.

In the resale market, transactions in January and February this year show that the median price of semi-detached and terrace houses was $2.5 million and $1.5 million respectively. A year ago, the corresponding median prices were $1.76 million and $1.16 million.

Developers marketing landed properties should emphasise the limited land resources and hence, the value of landed properties in the long-term. Secondly, owners do not have to pay maintenance fees for houses, unlike condominiums. Unless a house is very old, the upkeep is generally inexpensive. Spending money on one’s own property beats contributing $3,000 to $4,000 a year to a condo management or sinking fund.

Landed homes are also attractive as investments as they can fetch good rentals. Proximity to premier schools, international schools and embassies is definitely an advantage.

At the top, GCBs in Bukit Timah can be leased out at $18,000 to $25,000 a month while standard detached houses can fetch $12,000 to $18,000, depending on their size and condition. Semi-detached houses can command a monthly rent of $8,000 to $12,000 while terrace houses can achieve $3,000 to $7,000.

Limited supply results in the relatively inelastic prices of landed homes, and increasingly, those who hold such properties will find them a boon as more often than not these are assets that appreciate in value over time.

The writer is associate director, CBRE Research

Source : Business Times – 25 Mar 2010