Market Report | Lush Dream Home

Tag Archives: Market Report

‘Be prepared for W-shaped recovery’

Posted on 16 Sep 2009 | Comments Off

The downturn looks to have bottomed out and signs of recovery are there, but Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong reiterated the warning that “it is going to be a long, hard climb back up”.

“The outlook is not bad, but please be psychologically prepared for a slow pickup, and even for surprises,” he said. “Do not assume that the worst is over.”

While employment figures are improving and the stock markets have recovered, Mr Lee warned that the possibility of a W-shaped recovery remains.

Asked by a student about the Government’s strategy going forward, Mr Lee said the task at hand is to decide what measures Singapore needs in 2010 “in case the economy turns bad again”. The Government will make a decision in the coming month on the Jobs Credit scheme which runs out at the year’s end.

Source : Today – 16 Sep 2009

Comments Off on ‘Be prepared for W-shaped recovery’

Posted in Property Market / Real Estate

Tagged Market Report

Without proper disclosure, how useful are research reports?

Posted on 16 Sep 2009 | Comments Off

IN A Monday report on the property sector issued before the government’s anti-speculation real estate measures were announced in Parliament, a foreign broker said it was positive on stocks of developers because not only was Singapore in the early stages of a residential sector upswing, but there were also no indications that the government would do anything to derail the recovery.

In the various ‘buy’ calls on Genting Singapore which were issued during the stock’s run-up over the past six weeks or so – some of which went so far as to describe the stock as potentially being worth $2 to $3 – not one drew attention to the fact that the company had yet to announce a profit. All instead relied on the promise of possible riches available from the start of casino season in Singapore next year, based mainly on forecasts from the company’s management.

When formulating its calls for various blue chips, a foreign broker employs long-term forecasting models which project cash flows or ‘value creation’ for a period of up to 10-18 years, ie, up to the year 2019- 2027. Details of the model, however, are only given deep inside the report and are, in some cases, sketchy.

There’s more, but by now a common thread should be obvious – because of the rebound in equity markets since March, rising complacency in the financial markets has led to increased exuberance in the broking community. This in itself is fine – in an upward, frenzied market, investors are typically hungry for ideas and there’s nothing like a juicy investment story with a high target price to stir the senses. Continue reading →