Tag Archives: Cooling measures

S’pore property outlook challenging until 2020

What does the future hold for Singapore’s property market?

According to a recent Savills report, the outlook remains challenging for the rest of 2014, and this is expected to continue over the next six years.

The report looked at how 12 world cities would perform in 2020 and gave a tough assessment of Singapore.

Although the office sector is still robust with rents increasing by 7.3 percent in the first six months of 2014, the residential market has slowed with values and rents dropping by 4.2 percent and 3.5 percent respectively during the period.

This is due to the government’s cooling measures which are continuing to put pressure on the city-state’s prime residential market.

Savills added: “Market controls are set to be a feature of Singapore over the coming years as it battles market affordability in a bid to remain competitive on the global stage.”

One factor that puts Singapore at a disadvantage is its restricted land supply, which is at odds with the increasing wealth and growing workforce.

Lower value industries may have to relocate across the causeway, where land, property and wages are cheaper.

At the same time, Singapore risks becoming more rarefied or distant from the lives and concerns of ordinary people, with Singaporeans protected by government access to housing.

Meanwhile, employers will face more difficulty in attracting and retaining young talent from overseas due to the high real estate costs.

On a positive note, Singapore’s high-tech infrastructure and proximity to some of Asia’s key growth markets will see it progressing as a world leader in business.

In fact, the World Bank has ranked Singapore as number one for ease of doing business.

The city-state also has a strong reputation in the biotech and energy sector.

Home prices may drop 20% by 2016: report

Home prices in Singapore could fall by 20 percent between 2014 and 2016 as economic restructuring, tighter population policies and property measures continue to weigh on the real estate market, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BOAML) report in the media.

“We believe the fate of the market will depend very much on the direction of policy, particularly on restructuring, immigration and foreign workers, as well as the timing of the relaxation of strict property measures,” wrote economist Chua Hak Bin in the report.

He noted overly tight population policies will limit the number of a younger foreign workforce, and affect property prices. Maintaining the cooling measures would also “imply a greater negative impact from rising mortgage rates and persistence of housing distortions”.

On the restructuring front, Chua believes Singapore’s move to a productivity-driven growth model, which is a long-term process, has produced mixed results. Notably, it has reduced the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while employment growth and total job creation is expected to moderate this year.

“We do not see the government reversing course, but a pause may be in order…as companies, particularly SMEs, are having trouble adjusting to the speed of the tightening,” said Chua.

Any potential relaxation of property cooling measures is likely to happen only in H2 2015, as cyclical property measures such as stamp duties and loan-to-value limits may be relaxed when US interest rates and Singapore mortgage rates start rising.