TDSR doing its job, stats show

The impact of the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework is being felt, with less than 10 percent of existing borrowers having a TDSR of more than 60 percent, reported The Business Times, citing statistics from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

In fact, the prevalence of highly leveraged borrowers has declined for new housing loans, said the MAS.

“Almost all new housing loans are below the 60 percent TDSR threshold, with a significant proportion of new borrowers having TDSRs of less than 40 percent.”

Moreover, borrowers are now taking out fewer mortgages. Borrowers with more than one loan accounted for 20 percent of all new housing loans in Q3 2015, down from the 30 percent seen in 2011.

With this, the MAS is encouraging households to prepay their home loans in order to avoid monthly repayments and higher interest costs.

Banks also noticed that households have improved the risk profile of their home loans by paring down their mortgages.

Tok Geok Peng, DBS Bank’s Executive Director of Secured Lending, believes that the property cooling measures have helped homeowners to downsize their loan commitment via debt consolidation, capital repayment and other means.

Sherry Leong, Head of Secured Finance Solutions at Citibank Singapore, added: “We do not foresee any impact to (borrowers) with respect to the transition period, which should be sufficient for them to make any changes to their refinancing arrangement if required.”

The MAS revealed that the purpose of the three-year transition period is to encourage highly leveraged borrowers to “right-size their loans as early as possible”.

In February 2014, the central bank introduced a concession which broadened the exemption of the TDSR to include homeowners who breached the 60 percent limit but were hoping to refinance the loan on the property that they live in.

As for investment homes, the MAS allows a grace period until 30 June 2017 for refinancing, should the borrower agree to pay down a portion (usually at least three percent) of the outstanding loan.

Singapore developers more pessimistic

Business sentiment among property developers in Singapore fell further in Q4 2015, reported The Business Times, citing a survey by the Real Estate Developers’ Association of Singapore (Redas) and the National University of Singapore (NUS).

The Current Sentiment Index, which monitors changes in sentiment during the last six months, dipped to 3.6 in Q4 from 3.7 in the previous quarter.

On the other hand, the Future Sentiment Index, which monitors sentiment in the next six months, dropped to 3.4 in Q4 from 3.7 in the quarter before.

As a result, the Composite Sentiment Index slid to 3.5 from 3.7 previously. A score of less than five indicates deteriorating market conditions while a score of more than five implies improving conditions.

Conducted among senior executives of Redas’ member firms, the quarterly survey showed that nine in 10 developers expect the global economy to slow down, with three in four expecting the increase in interest rates and inflation to affect market sentiment over the next six months.

“Job losses, decline in domestic economy, excessive supply of new property launches are other potential risks that will adversely impact the market sentiment,” the report said.

Meanwhile, seven in 10 of the respondents expect new launches to moderately increase, while more than a fifth of the developers said they will launch relatively fewer units.

On price changes, six in 10 expect residential property prices to drop moderately in the next six months.

As for the impact of the cut in supply of the first half 2016 Government Land Sales (GLS) programme, around six in 10 anticipate minimal impact on demand in the commercial and residential property sectors.

One developer noted that a lack of new launches may see buyers revisiting the secondary market. “The lower GLS supply will provide support for prices, which lead to lower new developer sales. Some buyers will revisit unsold and resale units in existing projects.”