Developer profit margins fall significantly: study

Profit margins of new leasehold condominium launches in 2014 have fallen by more than 50 percent from 2013 and 2012, according to a Knight Frank study reported in the media.

In 2012, developers posted an average minimum margin of 14.4 percent, while the average maximum margin stood at 22.2 percent. By 2013, the margins were between 15.6 percent and 22.5 percent, but this year the margins have fallen to 5.0 percent and 10.3 percent.

This year’s average take-up rate also dropped to 32.3 percent from 67.2 percent in 2013 and 96.9 percent the year before.

Moving forward, further margin reductions are expected if developers continue to cut prices of units amid rising construction and financing costs, said Alice Tan, Research Head at Knight Frank Singapore.

In agreement, Savills’ Alan Cheong added: “It is not just an issue of margins but also the pace of sales. If the pace of sales is slow, the developer needs a higher margin because it cannot use the sales proceeds to fund the development.”

Knight Frank’s study looked at 99-year leasehold sites acquired through the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme in the last two years. It involved a total of 24 condo launches, of which four were unveiled this year, 12 last year and eight in 2012. They are all situated outside the Core Central Region (CCR).

As for the computation, the margin estimates took into account different cost factors like condominium type, a project’s gross development value (GDV) and the average transacted prices based on URA data from 2012 to July 2014.

The study focused solely on GLS sites due to their price transparency and good demand. The development costs of such sites are also more predictable than those which are bought privately, as the latter considers other costs such as legal liabilities, development charges and brokerage fees, noted Tan.

Challenging times ahead for shoebox landlords

Landlords of shoebox apartments located outside the city centre will find it “challenging” to rent out their units once the influx of new homes enters the market next year, said experts quoted in the media.

Most of the 53,900 new condo units set to hit the market over the next 30 months are small or shoebox apartments, or units measuring up to 506 sq ft.

“Owners of such units for investment would not be as successful at getting the kind of rentals they want going forward,” said Desmond Sim, Research Head at CBRE.

“There will be pressure on vacancies, as they will be facing competition from the broader market too.”

While there are no official figures on the number of shoebox units in the market, in September 2012 the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) estimated that there were around 2,400 completed units as at 2011, with the number climbing to 11,000 by the end of next year.

From 2009 to 2012, shoebox units featured heavily at newly launched projects including the 72-unit Suites@Guillemard in Lim Ah Woo Road, the 138-home Parc Imperial in Pasir Panjang Road and the 293-unit Alexis in Alexandra Road.

Although they tend to have a higher psf price due to their small size, investors find the overall quantum “more palatable, especially amid tightened financing”, noted Chia Siew Chuin, Director of Research and Advisory at Colliers International.

Typically, rental yields of shoebox units range from three to four percent, up from the two to three percent yields for residential developments islandwide.

However, experts warn investors looking to acquire shoebox apartments that rents for such units are expected to moderate in line with the flood of newly completed homes.