Risk of speculation escalating as market expects low interest rates to persist
Further action to cool the Singapore property market may be needed if recent measures to dampen speculation prove insufficient, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said yesterday.
MAS Financial Stability Review November 2009
Looking ahead, ‘price levels and transaction activity bear close monitoring’, MAS said in its yearly Financial Stability Review, published yesterday.
‘As Singapore emerges from recession and with the market expecting low interest rates to persist for some time, the risk of a renewed escalation of speculative momentum cannot be discounted.’
Despite lingering uncertainties in the economic outlook for Singapore and the rest of the world, ‘the domestic property market activity has taken on its own dynamic’, MAS said in a special section in the report highlighting what it sees as the key risks to Singapore’s financial system.
Other downside risks centre on the sustainability of the global economic recovery after governments start to withdraw their fiscal stimulus and tighten monetary policy, MAS said.
‘Should growth turn out weaker than expected, property buyers and speculators could face capital losses as the market corrects. Conversely, if the recovery stays on course, interest rates will eventually rise and drive up financing costs with severe implications for those who have overextended themselves,’ it said elsewhere in the report, commenting on the recent sharp rise in private home prices.
‘While the market rebound may appear to be aligned with improved prospects for the domestic economy, the current low interest rate environment has also played a part by reducing the cost of property financing,’ MAS said.
‘If unchecked, this could lead to a rising spiral of demand and prices as more and more property buyers and speculators are drawn into the market, and expose the property market to the continuing risks in the global economy.’
The steep increase in property prices here in recent months has already prompted the government to act to discourage speculation.
In September, the government banned interest-only housing loans and the interest absorption scheme that allows developers to absorb interest payments for apartments that are still being built.
It also restarted the confirmed list of the Government Land Sales programme in the first half of next year to meet the strong demand for private homes.
Unlike sites listed on the reserve list, confirmed-list land sites are put up for sale at a pre-determined date, without the need for the sale to be triggered by an application from developers.
Last Friday, the National Development Ministry said that it would place eight residential sites on the confirmed list for the first six months of next year.
That definite increase in residential land for sale is expected to have a dampening effect on overall home prices.
‘We would view the comments made by the MAS as more of a pre-emptive signal for now,’ said Donald Chua, an equity analyst at CIMB here in a note to clients.
‘A low interest rate environment coupled with strong property demand has led to fears of rising speculative activity.’
However, since the recent measures to discourage speculation were announced, ‘the euphoria on property has clearly cooled down in recent months, which should lead to more normalised property demand’, he added.
If the latest measures aren’t effective in curbing home price increases quickly enough, the government’s next step could be to reduce the limit on how much of a property’s price may be financed with a bank loan, from 80-90 per cent now, Mr Chua said.
Banks’ loan exposures to the property sector remain in line with historical trends, MAS said.
Its most recent aggregate bank lending data show that half of all Singapore-dollar bank loans at the end of September were to the broad property sector, with business loans to the building and construction sector making up 17.8 per cent of total bank lending, and consumer housing loans contributing another 31.6 per cent.
Source : Business Times – 10 Nov 2009
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