Category Archives: Property Market / Real Estate

The rise of small units

Small apartment or condominium units – including the smaller “shoeboxes” – have captured the attention of the residential property market here in recent years with their popularity among buyers and the high per-square-foot prices that they are able to command.

This trend towards small units is also occurring in major cities such as London, Tokyo and Hong Kong. It is part of an evolutionary process where the rise in real estate values is accompanied by demographic and lifestyle changes.

There are now more singles and couples without children, people who spend less time at home and those who dine out more often, etc. And the trend is fast gaining momentum.

In 1996, there were only 114 transactions in Singapore involving small units of up to 60 sq m, based on caveats lodged, representing only 0.8 per cent of the total number of private non-landed residential transactions.

The bull market in 2007 saw small units marketed in greater numbers, with 1,669 sold, accounting for 5.1 per cent of non-landed transactions.

By last year, the number of sales involving such units had increased substantially to 4,240, or 13.3 per cent of non-landed transactions.

This trend has continued into this year, with the first quarter seeing 1,121 small units sold, accounting for 19.3 per cent of non-landed sales.

Since last year, transactions have involved units as small as 24 sq m, while more than a quarter of those within the 60 sq m threshold were between 30 and 40 sq m.

Absolute prices have varied from S$350,000 for a secondary market unit to S$2.72 million for a high-end one at Scotts Square. Unit rates also varied widely, with suburban units fetching around S$800 psf, while the Scotts Square transaction was at S$4,358 psf.

Purchasers of Small Units

Small units are only suitable for occupation by singles or couples without children. While some singles or couples have bought with occupation in mind, most of the buyers of small units have been investors. What is notable is that many HDB residents have been buying small units.

In 2007, of the 1,669 small units transacted, 35.9 per cent of the buyers had HDB addresses. This proportion increased to 47.7 per cent last year and 49.9 per cent in the first quarter of this year.

The table shows that about 56 per cent of small unit buyers with HDB addresses purchased at a price of S$650,000 or less.

Another 35 per cent or so bought their units at between S$650,000 and S$1 million, while less than 9 per cent purchased at beyond S$1 million.

Buyers of small units with private addresses, on the other hand, were more active in the mid- to upper price ranges, with nearly two-thirds buying at S$650,000 and above.

This suggests that buyers with private addresses are less constrained by their budgets compared to those with HDB addresses.

As most buyers with HDB addresses have families, it is unlikely that they bought the small units for upgrading. This shows a growing trend among HDB households to invest for rental returns.

But due to budget constraints, they are able to afford only the smaller units with lower absolute prices. Anecdotally, we have heard of that ideal financial or retirement arrangement where one continues to live in an HDB flat while having a private property to provide rental income.

Examine the Fundamentals

Did the buyers of small units, especially those who are more budget-constrained, buy because they genuinely assessed that the product would fetch a good return or were they drawn by the affordable absolute price per se?

With an increasing supply of small units, will there be sufficient rental or owner-occupier demand? If the size of the unit is too small, would it be practical for living? If a development has a high proportion of small units, what will be the impact of the increased density on the living environment and traffic? These are issues that buyers of small units should ponder over.

Small units are not sure winners when it comes to leasing and will be subject to competition from others on the market.

Only those with strong attributes will attract tenants readily and at good rental. Generally, these would be centrally located, within or near the city or in proximity to amenities and transport.

As the trend towards small units continues, buyers will be presented with even more investment opportunities but they have to consider the fundamentals thoroughly in order to make better buying decisions.

By Ong Teck Hui – executive director of research and consultancy at Credo Real Estate

Will there be a housing market overhaul

The biggest news for the real estate industry after the General Election has to be the appointment of Mr Khaw Boon Wan as the new Minister for National Development.

Together with other new ministers, he will “have a free hand to rethink and reshape policies”, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has said.

Mr Khaw has acknowledged that the issue of housing is red-hot with widespread unhappiness and he has pledged to make “housing and HDB Singaporeans’ popular icon again”.

He will have his work cut out for him. We are already into our fourth set of cooling measures and have progressively and significantly ramped up housing supply – both for the private and public housing sectors.

In the space of four years, we have had three very good years of new private housing sales. And judging from the sales figures for the first four months of this year, we are right on track to achieve yet another good year. For a good number of market players – home buyers, investors, bankers and developers, the roots have sunk in deep and, in my opinion, we are almost at the point of no return.

Over the past four years, our housing policies have elevated Singapore very rapidly to be among the most attractive property investment destinations in Asia, if not the world. It is no wonder that investors are flocking to buy properties here. I am told that some overseas buyers do not even come here to visit. Such is the reputation that we have cultivated for ourselves that these investors simply instruct their lawyers to arrange for some monies to be invested in properties here. It has been that simple.

In hindsight, it was too much, too quickly. It was never going to work because given the current income levels of the general population, it was always going to be at odds with providing affordable housing and satisfying the upgrading dreams of citizens.

In my opinion, Singapore is too small geographically. Our public and private markets cannot be strictly segregated as they are more intertwined than we think. The more policies we have to promote one set of objectives, the more the other has to give.

I have seen this in other countries. It came to a point where developers needed to guarantee a certain number to be built for locals before they can even gain approval for their projects that were mainly targeted at foreign investors.

In the eyes of foreign buyers, Singapore is one of the most investor-friendly environments in the world, if not the most attractive. Even in some major economies, where land is aplenty, they have more foreign ownership rules and restrictions than Singapore.

I have been asked what I hoped for in new policies under Mr Khaw. I say, put aside for the time being, our goals of elevating Singapore to hubs of excellence in the various fields. Let us get our priorities right first. The rest will follow naturally.

As I see it, our new minister has two major problems that he has to deal with urgently – the seemingly unabated robust demand for new public housing flats despite the significant rise in supply. He has to isolate those buying in advance or panic buys from those needing their flats urgently and to help this latter group first.

The second is how to deal with the excessive liquidity that is flowing into property – primarily into housing.

We have thrown a lot of supply at the problem but it does not seem to have worked – at least not without other accompanying measures. Some of us in the real estate industry already think we have set off a ticking time bomb with the amount of supply we are pushing out and – if nothing changes – even more supply right up to the end of this year.

If you believe that our objectives have been radically re-prioritised under our new minister, then do expect possibly wholesale changes, including the rolling back of some of policies which are at odds with the new priorities. Do not expect more of the same type of cooling measures that I suspect some analysts are anticipating. In fact, the rules of the game may be changed.

Inconceivable? Well, many would not have thought that our two former Prime Ministers leaving the Cabinet so soon after the General Election was conceivable.

By Colin Tan – head, research and consultancy, at Chesterton Suntec International