Category Archives: Overseas Property

Australia property market less attractive

High taxes, rapid asset price recovery to blame, says LaSalle CIO

High taxes and a rapid asset price recovery have made the Australia property market less compelling for funds seeking high returns, with more attractive options in Japan and Singapore, according to a top executive of LaSalle Investment Management.

Ian Mackie, LaSalle’s chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific, told Reuters in an interview that the Australian government’s plan to cut withholding tax for foreign investors is a much-needed step to bring it into line with other regional countries.

‘The tax situation puts, in my opinion, Australia at somewhat disadvantage when comparing with other countries in the region,’ Mr Mackie said, ‘because the after-tax result of the investment is penalised harder in Australia than it is in Japan, Korea, Hong Kong or Singapore.’

The Australian government plans to cut the tax next July to 7.5 per cent from 30 per cent. Elsewhere in Asia, the tax rates range from 5 to 10 per cent.

Mr Mackie said that the speed of the recovery in Australian property prices compared to those in other countries meant limited opportunities for high-return investors, while a strong Australian dollar is also an obstacle because it has boosted hedging costs.

‘We still see opportunities here but the pricings recovered so much faster. They didn’t go down as much as another countries did and recovered much faster,’ he said. ‘Maybe for us in Australia, the window is closing faster.’

Prices for Australian office buildings were less than 20 per cent lower than a year ago in the second quarter, while those in Singapore and Tokyo were still down more than 30 per cent. Office vacancies in Australia are also stabilising.

LaSalle Investment Management, the investment arm of real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle, has US$3 billion available to invest in Asia after raising an opportunity fund last year, and Mr Mackie said that most of the funds have not been deployed yet.

Jones Lang’s chief financial officer, Lauralee Martin, told Reuters in an interview last week that its Asian business will drive growth next year as the region powers a global economic recovery.

Mr Mackie said that he sees some opportunities in suburban retail assets in Singapore and in the logistic sector in Japan. In particular, Japan offers handsome spreads between low borrowing costs and yields on buildings. ‘You’ve got 300 basis points of difference, which substantially leverage up the returns.’

He said that Singapore, as well as Thailand and Hong Kong, has seen sharper declines in property values, creating better chances to outperform Australian properties.

Source : Business Times – 19 Nov 2009

China faces asset-bubble risk: central bank adviser

Low interest rates, weakening dollar, capital inflows add to dangers, he warns

China is among the emerging markets facing risks of property and commodity market bubbles, central bank adviser Fan Gang said, joining officials from the region in expressing concern about surging asset prices.

‘The real risk is really asset bubbles,’ Mr Fan, who heads the National Institute of Economic Research, said at a business conference in Hong Kong on Tuesday.

A ‘Chinese asset bubble would be something very dangerous, that would cause the overheating’ elsewhere as well, he said.

Low interest rates sustained by the US Federal Reserve, a weakening dollar and capital inflows to emerging markets have added to the dangers, Mr Fan said. He becomes the latest voice indicating that the seeds of the next financial crisis may be being laid in Asia in the wake of liquidity injections by the world’s central banks.

‘When there is too much money around looking for good opportunities and emerging markets are the only places where growth is happening, over liquidity will lead to asset bubbles in equities, real estate and commodities,’ Mr Fan said. ‘That’s something we really need to watch.’

Emerging economies ‘might overheat and experience financial turmoil’, Bank of Japan governor Masaaki Shirakawa said in Tokyo on Nov 16.

Liu Mingkang, China’s top-banking regulator, said the day before that low US interest rates and the dollar’s depreciation present ‘new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy’.

A ‘double-digit’ economic growth rate wouldn’t be good for China, Mr Fan, the academic member of the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy committee, told property developers at the Hong Kong conference. Gross domestic product (GDP) may be able to climb 8 per cent to 9 per cent next year, he also said.

China’s government has encouraged a US$1.3 trillion credit boom this year, helping growth accelerate while at the same time aiding an 81 per cent climb in the Shanghai Composite Index of stocks.

China’s economy grew 8.9 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace in a year, as stimulus spending and record lending growth helped the nation lead the world out of recession.

The median projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is for GDP to jump more than 10 per cent in the final three months of 2009.

Mr Fan said that while the Chinese property market isn’t ‘crazy’, there is excessive speculation. High savings are fuelling that speculation, Mr Fan said, urging consideration of taxes on luxury properties. Levies are important to balance demand, he said.

China’s southern city of Shenzhen is ‘a pioneer’ by introducing a property tax, Mr Fan said. The average sale price of Shenzhen homes exceeded 20,000 yuan (S$4,050) a square metre in September, a record high, Huang Yu, executive vice-rector at China Index Academy, said at the same conference yesterday. In Beijing, the price was about 14,700 yuan a square metre, she said.

The academy compiles real estate data, including the China Real Estate Index System. ‘In the next 10 years, there will be demand for 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion square metres of homes a year,’ she said.

The total area of homes sold this year may reach 900 million square metres, from 600 million square metres in 2008.

Home prices in 70 major Chinese cities climbed 3.9 per cent from a year earlier in October, the most in 14 months, the government reported on Nov 10.

Consumer-price inflation isn’t likely in coming months, with stable food prices providing a restraint, Mr Fan also said.

He said China must continue its stimulus measures in 2010 to sustain growth, even as he rejected the prospect of a double-dip slowdown in the expansion. The United States may see a renewed slump, he also said.

China should maintain a ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy next year as government stimulus wanes and private investment and external demand remain weak, the State Information Centre said on Nov 16.

Source : Business Times – 19 Nov 2009