Category Archives: Overseas Property

Policy risks will weigh down China property stocks: BNP Paribas

China’s property stocks are likely to be ‘range-bound’ in 2010 on concern that the government will step up measures to curb gains in real estate prices, according to BNP Paribas.

The China SE Shanghai Property Index has slumped 9.7 per cent this year, after doubling last year, as the government re-imposed a sales tax on homes sold within five years of their purchase and pledged to speed up the construction of low-cost housing.

The gauge rose 0.2 per cent last week as annual parliamentary meetings didn’t introduce any new measures to rein in property prices.

‘Some commentators are suggesting policy risks were abating,’ Frank Chen and Trevor Cheung, Hong Kong-based analysts at BNP Paribas, wrote in a report yesterday. ‘We disagree and believe policy risks will stay with the sector for most of 2010 as the government continues to keep a tight grip on property prices.’

Premier Wen Jiabao repeated a pledge in his annual report to lawmakers earlier this month to counter property speculation and ‘keep price levels stable’. Real estate prices climbed 10.7 per cent in February from a year earlier, the fastest in almost two years, according to the statistics bureau.

Brokerages including UBS, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Credit Suisse Group and BofA-Merrill Lynch Research have turned positive on China’s property developers in the past month, saying the plunge in share prices this year has made them cheap and concern over tighter credit has been overdone.

The Shanghai property index trades at 25 times reported profits, near the lowest versus the Shanghai Composite Index since June 2008, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg.

Valuations for Chinese property developers are ‘very low’ and demand will be bolstered by rising incomes, Winson Fong, who helps manage about US$2.5 billion at SG Asset Management HK Ltd in Hong Kong, said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday.

BNP reiterated its forecast for 2010 property sales volumes to fall by 10 per cent and advised investors to sell shares of Hong Kong-listed Guangzhou R&F Property Co.

Guangzhou R&F has dropped 9.5 per cent this year, while China Vanke Co, the biggest mainland-traded developer by market value, has declined 15 per cent in Shenzhen.

Source : Business Times – 16 Mar 2010

Destination Asia

ASIAN buyers of luxury real estate may be raising their profiles in New York and London by picking up luxury homes at eye-popping prices, but they haven’t been neglecting the property markets closer to home either.

While property prices in more mature Asian markets such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand are still some way from their historical highs – courtesy of the beating they took due to global financial crisis – they have been moving up in tandem with stock markets, and attracting interest from individuals in the upper end of the high net-worth range.

‘The very affluent go where they choose to,’ says William E Heinecke, chief executive of Thai conglomerate The Minor Group, which among its diverse interests is a key player in the hospitality and lifestyle industries, with hotels, resorts and residential properties throughout the region. ‘A lot of people come to Thailand for the weather,’ he says. ‘As a result, if you can afford it, you have homes where you spend time.’

Minor launched its first high-end residential property project in 1995 at the Four Seasons Residences in Chiang Mai. Its growing portfolio of luxury developments includes The Estates Samui in Koh Samui, and the high-rise St Regis Residences in Bangkok is slated for completion next year. Prices for its various properties range between US$2 million and US$6 million.

Mr Heinecke says that Indian and Chinese nationals, who may have domicile in key major cities around the world, have emerged as strong players in the mega-luxury bracket, but traditional buyers from other Asian countries as well as Europeans and Americans are also active in the region. ‘As long as people have money and lifestyle is important, they are going to continue to buy in great locations,’ he says.

He adds that a significant new trend involves branded luxury residences which are located within a hotel property and can be part of the rental pool, commanding rates of several thousand dollars a night. ‘When owners visit their properties once or twice a year, it makes sense to have them professionally managed,’ says Mr Heinecke.

Mr Heinecke says that the quality at the luxe end of the market continues to improve, and there is also no shortage of high-end properties and people who are willing to buy them.

‘The bar continues to go up, and competition raises the bar,’ he says.

The luxury investment bar continues to go up as well in Singapore, where the recent launch of hotel and property developer YTL Corporation’s Kasara – The Lake collection at Sentosa Cove has yielded a highly positive result. The boutique development’s 13 villas have all been sold, at prices ranging from S$14 million to over S$25 million.

Of the buyers, seven were foreigners from Asia while six were locals. In general, there are several types of high-end buyers, says Kemmy Tan, director of international real estate at YTL Singapore.

Asian buyers are typically from Hongkong, Indonesia, Malaysia and China, with an increasing number of expatriate Indians as well. ‘American buyers may hold US passports but may not be living in the US, or they may be in places like Hongkong and have some interest in Asia,’ says Ms Tan. At the peak of the market, there were also investors from places such as Ireland. ‘When they invest, they invest with a longer-term view.’

Despite – or even because of – its restrictions on foreign ownership, Singapore has long been a significant target for investors. ‘They are property investors who own homes in key cities,’ she says. ‘If values are expensive in their home countries and Asia looks attractive, they will come here – these are definitely people with multiple homes in different cities and resorts.’

Buyers of properties in resort destinations are different from those who buy in Sentosa Cove, says Ms Tan. ‘They buy in Phuket and Bali for the resort lifestyle – those who buy here want the best of both worlds. They might have business interests and they want the comfort of city living. For wealthy investors, especially during the financial crisis, they are looking for good buys in ’safe’ locations.’

The proportion of foreign investors versus locals has increased tremendously in the past few years, she adds. And the good news is there is still some upside.

‘Real estate has always been a good hedge against inflation,’ says Ms Tan. ‘For luxury property, we are at least 10 to 15 per cent below the peak, so there’s room to move up.’

Elsewhere in Asia, there have been recent reports of a US$45 million riverfront mansion on the market in Shanghai’s financial district – an indication of the real estate boom in China. If those kinds of prices look a little scary, then there are always less heated up markets like Taiwan, where analysts report that foreign investors make up less than one per cent of the property market. Where opportunities go, of course, the money will always follow.

Source : Business Times – 13 Mar 2010